The Celtics came into Game 2 with an 81.9% chance of winning, according to ESPN analytics. Instead, they lost by 10 to an undermanned Heat team missing two of its four leading scorers.
Kristaps Porzingis, who’s had a historically efficient year from the post, struggled immensely, finishing with just 6 points on 1 of 9 shooting.
Jrue Holiday shot just 4 of 12.
The Celtics were held to 18 third quarter points en route to a loss that the broader basketball community did not see coming.
The response is going to be – and has already been – sensationalized. The Miami Herald’s headline recapping the game reads “Heat shock Celtics” and CBS Sports’ “Miami stuns Boston.”
The Celtics were ‘humiliated,’ according to hundreds at home on Twitter. The unexpected outcome signals that they are ‘frauds.’
The outcry is the result of wildly unrealistic expectations heading into the matchup. Ahead of Game 2, the Heat were 14.5 point underdogs, a stunning line for any postseason game, particularly considering the fact Miami eliminated Boston last season. ESPN analyst Kendrick Perkins, while known for his fiery takes, said after Game 1 that there was zero chance for the Heat to steal even a single game in the series.
“The Miami Heat could go 100 percent from the field and 100 percent from the 3, and they’re still gonna get swept in this series,” Perkins said on NBA Countdown.
It’s obviously not a comment that can be taken at face value, but it reflects a broader misunderstanding of the limits of Miami Heat basketball — and of the challenge of winning NBA playoff games.
After suffering a Game 1 blowout, Erik Spoelstra — as he’s done countless times before —made strategic tactical adjustments. Seeing that Jayson Tatum lit them up for 10 assists on the Sunday, Miami moved away from doubling, instead crowding passing lanes, denying Kristaps Porzingis comfortable positioning in the post, and pushing catches higher across the board.
Joe Mazzulla, Jaylen Brown, and Jrue Holiday said at practice this week that they knew a different Heat team would show up on Wednesday, and that was certainly the case.
The dominant narrative entering this series is that Miami would have to outshoot the Celtics in order to have a chance. They did just that, hitting a franchise playoff record 23 three-pointers. The Heat shot 53.5% from beyond the arc, making their fourth playoff game in the past two seasons with 50% shooting from three against…
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