The group stage of the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament came to a close on Tuesday with a thrilling night of action that even the biggest skeptics had to enjoy. Now, the quarterfinals are set for the knockout stage. Those games will be played in home markets on Dec. 4 and 5, with the winners advancing to Las Vegas, which will play host to the semifinals and championship on Dec. 7 and 9, respectively.
Here’s a look at the seeds and matchups:
Eastern Conference bracket
Western Conference bracket
Championship
- TBD vs. TBD, Dec. 9, 8:30 p.m. ET — ABC
With the bracket confirmed, SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh ran the numbers to determine each team’s chance of winning the first NBA Cup, and the best value from a betting perspective. Let’s take a look:
|
Celtics |
50.5% |
29.7% |
18.7% |
+300 (33.3%) |
-14.6% |
|
Bucks |
57.0% |
30.1% |
16.2% |
+340 (29.4%) |
-13.2% |
|
Knicks |
43.0% |
21.1% |
11.1% |
+1400 (7.1%) |
+3.9% |
|
Pacers |
49.5% |
19.1% |
8.5% |
+1300 (7.7%) |
+0.8% |
The Knicks aren’t as good as the Bucks or Celtics, but they’re a legitimate playoff team and have played both teams tough already this season. You probably shouldn’t put a significant bet down on them to win it all, but anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, and they are by far the best value at +1400.
As for the Celtics, they’ve been the best team in the league this season, so it makes sense they’re the overall favorites. They might very well win it all, but they have to go on the road in the quarterfinals and +300 just isn’t good value for a team to win three consecutive high-level games. Especially when we don’t know how teams will respond to the Las Vegas environment.
|
Lakers |
54.8% |
30.8% |
14.6% |
+550 (18.2%) |
-3.6% |
|
Suns |
45.2% |
24.6% |
11.6% |
+640 (15.4%) |
-3.8% |
|
Pelicans |
45.0% |
21.1% |
9.9% |
+1200 (8.3%) |
+1.6% |
|
Kings |
55.0% |
21.1% |
9.4% |
+550 (18.2%) |
-8.8% |
The Pelicans are the best value in the West, and are perhaps worth a small wager. They’re 5-3 in their last eight games and have the second-best net rating in the league in that span at plus-9.5. Two of those wins came against the Kings, their quarterfinal opponent, and they have one of the most dynamic players in the league in Zion Williamson.
Perhaps the best bet on the board, however, is the Suns. While they are technically negative value, +640 is pretty decent odds, especially for a team that has been cruising along like they have. They’re 7-0 since Devin Booker returned from injury, and can light it up on the offensive…
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