What do you do with Giannis, Jokić, Embiid MVP race?

The end of the 2022-23 NBA regular season and the onset of the play-in tournament can mean only one thing: I am no longer allowed to put off thinking about year-end awards.

The powers that be at the NBA, in their infinite and inarguable wisdom, have once again given me an official ballot. Here’s how I filled it in:

Most Valuable Player

1. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

4. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

5. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers

Not going to lie: Sliding Antetokounmpo — the best player on the best team in the NBA, and my pick last season — down to third makes me feel a little queasy.

Embiid and Jokić played more games, and between 250 and 300 more minutes. Embiid, winner of a second straight scoring title, holds the edge in points; Jokić, who finished decimal points away from becoming the third player ever to average a triple-double, holds a huge advantage in playmaking. Both have significant edges in shooting efficiency, too, thanks to Giannis’ janky shot leading to a 27.5% mark from 3-point range and a 64.5% success rate on free throws.

Embiid and Jokić led top-five offenses; Antetokounmpo’s Bucks finished 13th. And while Milwaukee’s vise-grip defense was better than either Philly’s or Denver’s, Antetokounmpo shares credit for that with bookend stoppers Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez — without whom the Bucks’ D was closer to top–10ish, even with Giannis on the floor.

Antetokounmpo had an incredible season; he remains, for my money, the best player in the sport, and is the member of this bunch I’d most trust to win me a playoff series. Judging the regular season as a whole, though, I think Embiid and Jokić have better cases this time around.

The major availability and advanced statistical gaps that have favored Jokić in recent years have narrowed. Jokić played three more games and 39 more minutes than Embiid, down from six and 179 last season and 21 and 903 two years ago. And while Jokić leads the pack in a number of advanced metrics — including value over replacement player, player efficiency rating, win shares, box plus-minus, estimated plus-minus and FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR — Embiid ranks second or third in almost all of those, and has overtaken Jokić in a couple of others, like ESPN’s real plus-minus and Kostya Medvedovsky’s DARKO skill projections.

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