By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Writer
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Luka Dončić is the preseason favorite to win the NBA regular-season Most Valuable Player award.
For the third year in a row, the Dallas Mavericks‘ do-everything point forward is at the top of every oddsmaker’s MVP list — including FOX Bet — and I only wish there was a side wager that for the third year in a row, he won’t win the award.
Let’s talk about the three players I think are worth sprinkling some money on instead.
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I don’t have anything against Dončić. I get the enchantment, especially as an MVP candidate. No one in the league has the ball in his hands more — he has led in usage rate the past two seasons, and I fully expect him to do so again this season. And he’s mastered every offensive skill.
The problem is that every year, the combination of that high usage rate and his physical style of play results in him wearing down and, with it, a notable slide in his efficiency.
If there were a degree-of-difficulty component to winning the award, he’d get it in a landslide because no one works harder for everything he gets. He doesn’t have Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid‘s size or Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s length or athleticism. Those advantages allow them, at times, to score, rebound and dish assists without suffering the turnovers and missed shots that Dončić does.
That, I suspect, is the primary reason he has never received so much as a first-place vote for the award or finished higher than fourth in the overall balloting. In short, he’s a bad bet.
So which stars are good bets?
Here are the MVP odds, my two favorites to win the award this year and a long shot.
ODDS TO WIN NBA MVP (at FOX Bet)
Luke Dončić, Mavericks: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Joel Embiid, 76ers: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Kevin Durant, Nets: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Ja Morant, Grizzlies: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Steph Curry, Warriors: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
Jayson Tatum, Celtics: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
LeBron James, Lakers: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Devin Booker, Suns: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trae Young, Hawks: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
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