It’s the first of the month, and it’s time to do a temperature check on the rookies. Now that we’re in Week 15, there’s been some movement up and down the first-year ladder. Rather than belabor relishing the two phenoms of the 2023 class who are cruising to second-round value in most leagues (Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren), I’m going to focus my attention on five other first-year players and evaluate their rest-of-season outlook before the trade deadline hits on Feb. 8.
The rookie out of Alabama is about to live the high life with Terry Rozier now in South Beach. Since that trade, Miller’s averaged 18 points with three rebounds, three assists and two threes per contest. He had a couple of bad games sprinkled in there, but I’m more encouraged by Charlotte’s impending fire sale. Miller has the third-highest usage rate on the team at 21.7%, only trailing LaMelo Ball (31.5%) and Miles Bridges (23.7%). Bridges and Gordon Hayward (who also has a 20+ % usage rate) are the two notable veterans rumored to be on the trade block. Getting them out of the way would surely boost Miller’s volume and usage going forward.
I’d prefer him in points leagues based on his inefficiency from the field, but he’ll still be effective in category formats as he’s shown to be a capable rebounder and willing passer. It’s encouraging that he’s already a 38% three-point shooter despite his struggles scoring near the rim. Part of that would also be him settling for fewer jumpers and drawing more fouls through dribble penetration, but that comes with experience. And he’ll get plenty of it once he becomes the second scoring option should the aforementioned vets get moved by next Thursday’s deadline.
Lively is a player I’m actively targeting because of his expanding role with the Mavs. There isn’t much competition for minutes at the center spot, and his minutes have gone up month over month. Recently, he’s gone from playing 26 minutes per night on the season to 30 minutes per night in his last five games. In the 10 games that Lively has played at least 30 minutes this season, he’s averaging 14 points, 12 rebounds and 2.4 assists. He also has a plus/minus of +13 when seeing 30-plus minutes, so playing him more minutes has been fruitful for the Mavs.
What’s more telling is his rapport with Luka Dončić. Lively has been on the receiving end on 79 of Dončić’s 382 assists this season, accounting for 20% of his assist share. While that may not seem like a lot, it’s the most on the team and…