Jimmy Butler has some of the worst luck in recent NBA history. He was drafted onto reigning MVP Derrick Rose’s team, but frequent injuries to Rose prevented him from genuinely competing for championships with the Chicago Bulls. He got traded to another (likely) MVP’s team, but the Philadelphia 76ers deprived him of the chance to spend his prime with Joel Embiid by instead choosing to let him leave in free agency so they could sign Al Horford.
He’s come fairly close to winning it all as a member of the Miami Heat twice. His hopes for the 2020 title were dashed when Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic got hurt in Game 1 of the Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers. He came one shot away from reaching the NBA Finals last season on a team whose injury report featured five key players going into Game 7 against the Boston Celtics.
History tends to remember destinations instead of journeys. Players like Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing and John Stockton are lumped into the “no rings” bucket. For now, Butler technically remains there. But to criticize him for lacking a championship does a complete disservice to the postseason giant slayer he’s become. Butler may have never ended the season hoisting the championship trophy, but he’s the player those who do reach that peak most want to avoid on their way there.
He is, quite simply, the most dangerous underdog in NBA history. Just look at his resume:
- Butler has appeared in 13 series in which his team was the lower seed. His team has won six of them. That’s a win rate of 46%. Since Butler became a full-time starter in 2014, lower seeds have a series record of 33-102. That’s a win rate of around 24%.
- Butler has an 19-25 record on the road in the postseason, translating to a winning percentage of roughly 43%. Road teams as a whole won 35% of their playoff games between 1984 and 2020.
- Only one No. 5 seed has reached the NBA Finals: the 2020 Heat, led by Butler. They were the third-lowest overall seed to reach the Finals, trailing the No. 6 seeded 1995 Houston Rockets and No. 8 seeded 1999 Knicks.
- Only five No. 8 seeds had ever defeated a No. 1 seed. Butler’s 2023 Heat became the sixth on Wednesday when they knocked off the Milwaukee Bucks.
- And though the NBA’s play-in round has been around for a few seasons, no play-in team had ever won a playoff series until Butler’s Heat.
The individual performances are just as staggering. In only his second…
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