What do the returning superstars mean for their teams’ fantasy and betting outlooks?
Kevin Durant is expected to make his return to the lineup for the Suns on Wednesday night. This caps a week in which several Western Conference playoffs contenders have gotten injured/absent franchise players back. A fifth superstar return is also potentially on the horizon in Zion Williamson, but for now, let’s look at the four that are back now, and what their returns mean for the fantasy and betting outlooks for their teams moving forward.
When LeBron is healthy, he is the primary ballhandler and creator on the Lakers. When he missed extended time earlier this season, Russell Westbrook took on more of the offense creation and Anthony Davis stepped up his production as a finisher to MVP-level. I’d wondered, then, whether the new dynamic would carry over into LeBron’s return, but it really didn’t. Davis continued to play well and even remained the primary scorer after LeBron returned, but his scoring volume did dip some, and LeBron clearly resumed his role as primary offense creator with Westbrook’s fantasy value sliding the most.
This time through, it’s a different Lakers team after their series of deadline trades. Instead of one other premier (if aging) offense creator in Westbrook with little other shooting, the new Lakers have several talented shooters across positions but perhaps lacked another offensive engine. At least, that was the theory. Instead, both D’Angelo Russell and (somewhat shockingly) Austin Reaves stepped up in a major way on that front with LeBron out. In the 10 games before LeBron’s return, Reaves averaged 18.9 PPG, 6.4 APG, 3.8 RPG and 1.2 3PG on 35.3 3P% to put himself firmly on the fantasy streamer/DFS/daily prop bet radar.
LeBron’s return to prominence seems destined to lower Reaves’ scoring and assist volume the most, with some hits in those areas to Russell and Davis as well. On the flip side, LeBron’s presence should get everyone easier looks, particularly the shooters, because defenses will have no choice but to collapse onto him. And all three are strong shooters that can help maintain some of their non-LeBron value by increasing their scoring efficiency. Reaves was a 37.7% shooter from 3-point range before February 26 (when LeBron went down), and his breakout without LeBron should continue to afford him increased minutes and responsibility, so he could maintain a fantasy streamer role as a…
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