Here’s the hard fact: the starting lineup of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Robert Williams just hasn’t been good this season and that’s putting it kindly. They’ve been pretty bad. The same fivesome that racked up a ridiculous 24.6 net rating (118.8 offensive, 94.2 defensive through 443 minutes) last year is a -12.4 (106.7 offensive, 119.0 defensive through 81 minutes).
Part of it can be chalked up to Robert Williams’ late start to the season. After missing the first 29 games of the season and another eleven to get reinserted into and reacquainted with the starting lineup, Williams still doesn’t look like himself at Game #64. There have certainly been moments when he’s been a wild card in so many wins this season, but that’s just it. A year ago, there was a sense you could expect the unexpected, those 2-3 plays a night where Williams would singlehandedly change the momentum of a game or add the exclamation point to a win.
That’s not to say he hasn’t been effective. After MVP candidate Jayson Tatum and analytics darling Derrick White, he’s third on the team in plus-minus at +4.4. Unfortunately, something’s not working.
One angle of interpretation is that Boston’s double-big lineup isn’t in line with their current identity. With an emphasis on three-point shooting on offense and switching everything on defense, their most effective lineups have been small, featuring either Derrick White in the back court or Grant Williams in the front court.
Celtics Three Most Used Lineups
| Lineup | Minutes | Net Rating | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineup | Minutes | Net Rating | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating |
| A. Horford – M. Smart – J. Brown – J. Tatum – D. White | 287 | 13 | 120 | 106.9 |
| A. Horford – M. Smart – J. Brown – J. Tatum – G. Williams | 155 | 2.1 | 111.7 | 109.6 |
| A. Horford – J. Brown – J. Tatum – D. White -… |
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