Doubt creeps into Arkansas’ NCAA Tournament hopes after concerning loss at Vanderbilt

On Friday’s episode of Eye on College Basketball I pointed out that, despite Arkansas‘ reputation, if you really dug into the reality of the 15th-ranked Razorbacks, it was conceivable they could wind up messing around missing the NCAA Tournament.

I put the prospect of Arkansas’ ill-desired plot twist at 15% — but that was before the Hogs got stamped 97-84 at Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Now? I’d double the chances the Razorbacks are left out of the Big Dance. 

Credit to Jerry Stackhouse’s Commodores for putting up one of the most impressive second halves of the season: 69.2% shooting, including 66.7% from 3-point range and 63 second-half points to Arkansas’ 42 — turning an eight-point deficit midway through the game into a 13-point win. Vandy averaged a lava-hot 1.4 points per possession, by far the best showing against Arkansas’ (previously stout) defense this season. Vanderbilt’s dismissal of the Hogs was so statistically impressive, it dropped Eric Musselman’s team from 14th to 22nd in overall defensive efficiency at KenPom.com. 

I still think it’s comfortably more likely than not that Arkansas sees its name pop up on CBS on Selection Sunday when the big bracket is revealed, but this program is in trouble and needs to find a way to safety soon. After an 11-1 start, Arkansas has lost four of its last five, and at 1-4 in the SEC, is only ahead of Mississippi in the league ledger. 

Nobody thought this was possible three weeks ago, let alone in the preseason.

There’s a lot to be worried about. First, because the offense is hamstrung due to injuries, Arkansas has to win with its defensive intensity and aptitude. If that goes, this team is 100% toast. I don’t anticipate many more teams dropping better than 1.2 points per possession on the Hogs moving forward, so there’s that, at least. 

And what about that offense? As Musselman told me recently, the staff built its O around two guys who aren’t playing: Nick Smith Jr. and Trevon Brazile. The latter is done for the season with a torn ACL. The former is working on a knee injury, with the hope he’ll be able to come back by February. Skepticism abounds over whether the projected top-10 NBA Draft pick will play again for the Hogs. I think he will. I also think he needs to in order to ensure an NCAA Tournament bid for Arkansas. Since Dec. 27, according to BartTorvik.com, Arkansas has played like the 120th-best team in the…