No one would’ve expected Long Beach State’s mini-Cinderella run last season.
Despite announcing that head coach Dan Monson would not return, the Beach accomplished the improbable by beating UC Davis in the Big West Tournament Championship Game to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament and extend Monson’s tenure as the head coach.
While we likely won’t get a Monson situation this season – athletic departments seem to be less inclined to announce a coach’s firing before the end of the season, even if they are trying to “motivate” the team – there will be other low-seeded programs (Long Beach State was a No. 4 seed in the Big West) that win conference tournaments despite the odds.
In some ways, the small fish winning their respective conference tournament kicks off March Madness. Even though their tournament campaign could be short-lived, these programs throw a wrench in the plans of bracketologists as they either steal bids from at-large teams or earn a conference’s only bid after winning multiple games in consecutive days.
This season, the odds are even further against these schools as conferences announce whacky formats for their conference tournaments. For example, the lowest-ranked team in the Sun Belt would have to win seven games in seven days to clinch their spot in the NCAA Tournament, while South Alabama – the conference’s top seed – would need to win just two games.
But, you already knew that.
You want to know which “underdogs” will be the conference’s bid stealer this year. For the sake of continuity, we’re following Long Beach State’s lead, only picking from teams ranked outside the top three in their conference tournament.
North Dakota State
Seed: 4-seed in Summit League Tournament
Record: 21-10 overall (10-6 Summit League)
Few, if any, mid-major teams can keep up with North Dakota State on offense. According to KenPom, the Bison are the best team in the nation by effective field goal percentage (58.3%) and fourth in three-point percentage, shooting a blistering 39.6 percent from deep.
Of course, their defense is terrible, as the Bison allow 74.2 points per contest. In Summit League play, that number is up to 78 points per game, and opponents…
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