Arkansas vs. UConn: Examining the teams statistically

Connecticut is the higher-ranked seed. Las Vegas favors the Huskies. They’ve been here more often. Their numbers are better.

Just about everything in the world points to UConn being the favorite in the Sweet 16 against Arkansas on Saturday. For our purposes, we’re going to take a look at that last part.

Numbers are what they are. They tell a story of what’s happened, but not necessarily what will happen. Things can still be gleaned from data, though, that suggest an outcome. It’s why managers select pinch-hatters or, more to the point of Hogs hoops, why Eric Musselman changes his rotations so significantly from game to game.

What the Arkansas coach has done in the last week has worked like a charm. Kamani Johnson up. Nick Smith down. The Razorbacks’ games played the way that would yield those as the best results.

But when tip comes Saturday, another set of decisions come with it. Here are some of the (admittedly more basic) numbers that go into such things. Let’s compare Arkansas and UConn this season.

Mar 18, 2023; Des Moines, IA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Ricky Council IV (1) drives to the basket against Kansas Jayhawks forward K.J. Adams Jr. (24) and forward Jalen Wilson (10) during the second half at Wells Fargo Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

• UConn: 78.5 points per game – 31st nationally
• Arkansas: 74.3 points per game – 112nd nationally

The ranking may look awfully far apart, but the numbers themselves aren’t too far off. The Huskies can fill it up as well as just about anyone in the country, however, so expect a relatively high-scoring game.

Mar 16, 2023; Des Moines, IA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Ricky Council IV (1) blocks the shot of Illinois Fighting Illini forward Ty Rodgers (20) during the first half at Wells Fargo Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

• UConn: 64.7 points per game – 38th nationally
• Arkansas: 67.4 points per game – 98th nationally

Connecticut holds the edge defensively, too. Arkansas was in the top third in the country, though, which bodes well. One thing to note: UConn plays in a significantly worse conference overall and generally gets easier opponents game-to-game which skews this and the previous statistic a bit.

Mar 18, 2023; Des Moines, IA, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard Ricky Council IV (1) shoots the ball against Kansas Jayhawks forward Jalen Wilson (10) during the first half at Wells…