Here are a few Monday thoughts from the Hoops Lab, as we prepare for Week 21 of the fantasy basketball season, and the upcoming fantasy hoops playoffs. Keep in mind, the Fantasy Basketball Rest of Season Rankings also update on Mondays, so check those out as your prepare for this week’s games. Between the rankings and this article, we’ll also help you identify some good Buy Low/Sell high candidates. So, without further ado, let’s dig into it.
Minimizing the “likely to miss games” tax
Last week, after I submitted my FBA Points update, one of my Twitter followers (follow me @ProfessorDrz) sent me a DM that pointed out that I might have ranked Kawhi Leonard too low. Their argument was that Kawhi had been playing full minutes, and the Clippers didn’t have very many back-to-back sets left, so Kawhi’s ranking should be closer to his recent stretch of games. Upon review, I decided that argument was exactly right. In my projections, I typically tax Leonard about 25% of his value, because he has typically only played in about 75% of his teams’ games over the last several seasons. But, we’re at the end of the season, the Clippers are desperately trying to earn a good seed for the playoffs, and there really aren’t many back-to-back sets left. So, for this week’s FBA points rankings update, which may be the last of the season since the FBA playoffs are starting soon, I removed the “likely to miss games” tax from Kawhi and he jumped up the rankings into the top-10.
I performed a similar tax reduction for players like Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis, who also jump into the top-10 in this week’s rankings. This marks a high-water mark in the rankings this season for all players involved. And keep in mind, they still have more risk for missing a given game than most players in the league. But, we’re at the finish line of the regular season, and all three play on teams that are fighting for postseason position. It’s nice to have some justification for ranking them nearer to their actual value, and really, if you have them on your teams at this point you know the risk and are just hoping for the best.
Long term injuries equal a big drop in rankings
On the opposite side of the coin, with the FBA playoffs on the very near horizon, I dropped players with long-term injuries that may not return in…
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