College Hoops

March Madness 2023: Houston leads contenders, Tennessee among pretenders for NCAA Tournament

March Madness 2023: Houston leads contenders, Tennessee among pretenders for NCAA Tournament


There are 363 Division I teams in college basketball. Only 68 of them will get into the NCAA Tournament field this year. And only a fraction of those 68, if I’m being truthful, are legitimate contenders fit to wear the crown.

So who are they?

By my count, only seven teams have the goods to be the last team standing on the first Monday night of April in Houston. They are (no surprise) called “contenders.” Just below them is another bucket of good — but not great — teams called “pretenders.” These are teams that can make a run in March but don’t quite have the goods to win it all. I am sorry in advance if your team falls into that category and your feelings are hurt. The truth isn’t always stuffed with empathy.

Let’s start with the contenders and work our way down to the pretenders. In the contenders column, I’ll rank each team from most to least likely to win the title – led, of course, by my current pick to win it all — along with accompanying title odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Contenders

1. Houston

Odds to win title: +700

The only team in America with a top-10 offense and top-10 defense in adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom metrics. Houston has a healthy balance on both ends and plays a physical, disciplined style that grinds teams down throughout the game. The Cougars have a superstar vet in Marcus Sasser, a one-and-doner in Jarace Walker and experience littered throughout the roster. 

2. Purdue

Odds to win title: +1000

A No. 1 seed has won the championship 24 of the last 37 tournaments since the NCAA Tournament‘s bracket expansion in 1985. That’s a bright green flashing GO sign for Purdue, the likeliest No. 1 overall seed at this juncture. Historical data aside, this Boilermakers team is exactly the type of team that can win in March, too. Zach Edey — the frontrunner for Player of the Year who stands at a towering 7-foot-4 — is a nightmare matchup. Matt Painter, perennially underrated, may be the best coach in college basketball this year. And the supporting cast of characters fits perfectly around Edey with Fletcher Loyer, Braden Smith, Mason Gillis blending smarts, length and depth.

3. Arizona

Odds to win title: +1000

The Wildcats have tightened up their defense lately, boasting the top-rated unit at BartTorvik.com since giving up 87 points to Oregon on Jan. 14 — its last loss. They also rank No. 1 across the metrics spectrum at the site overall. This…

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