When the preseason AP Top 25 poll dropped this time last year, I set out to rain on as many parades as possible. I declared UCLA overrated. I said Kentucky was overrated. Ditto for top-15 preseason team Oregon.
And, by golly, I was right on all counts.
UCLA, ranked No. 2 in the preseason, finished outside the top 10 of the poll. Kentucky, ranked No. 10 in the preseason, failed to win the SEC and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s. And Oregon, which was ranked No. 13, finished the season unranked and missed its first NCAA Tournament since 2018.
It brings me no joy so much joy to say “I told ya so.”
So who will I inevitably be right about again this year after Monday’s release of this season’s preseason AP Top 25? Which teams are too high in the preseason or too low? I’ve consulted my crystal ball. I’m ready to crash some preseason parties before they begin.
Overrated
North Carolina
AP Top 25 preseason ranking: No. 1
North Carolina is a very good basketball team and easily ranks top-10 for me next season. Just not No. 1. Like UCLA last year, the magical NCAA Tournament run it is coming off of has skewed the reality of what it really was last season: which was a just-OK team that got really hot end of year. Remember: UNC at one point last season didn’t even look like it’d be a tourney team. It had to catch fire down the stretch and eventually got in as a No. 8 seed. The return of four of five starters from its NCAA runner-up roster makes UNC an easy pick here, but UCLA’s similar trajectory over the last two years should serve as a cautionary tale for the Tar Heels and expectations surrounding them this season. Good team, not the No. 1 team.
Kansas
AP Top 25 preseason ranking: Tied for No. 5
To rank Kansas No. 5 in the AP poll — a Kansas team that is coming off an NCAA championship — seems totally reasonable. But to consider the context of this team, it’s a smidge too high. KU lost not only Final Four MOP Ochai Agbaji (and the real Final Four MOP, David McCormack), but also Christian Braun and Remy Martin. It has some nice incoming pieces led by Gradey Dick and Texas tech transfer Kevin McCullar, but I’m not convinced this is definitely a top-two team in the Big 12 — much less a top-five team nationally.
Indiana
AP Top 25 preseason ranking: 13
Someone has to step up in the Big Ten this season and there is no clear and obvious pick, hence an…
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